An effect occurring in greenhouses in which radiant heat from the sun passes through the glass and, trapped inside by the glass, warms the contents. The term came to apply to an analogous effect on the Earth's atmosphere in which carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere absorb the infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface through being exposed to solar ultraviolet radiation. As a result, the Earth's mean temperature rises.
The total amount of carbon dioxide present in the Earth's atmosphere remained nearly constant until the 20th century, when the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, fuel oil, gasoline, and natural gas began to release large quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Variations in the amounts of carbon dioxide and water vapor in the air can therefore have a significant effect on how much heat is retained by the atmosphere. Some scientists believe that, as the greenhouse effect is intensified, long-term climatic changes on the Earth will result, such as new patterns and extremes of drought and rainfall, which would seriously disrupt food production. Temperature increases in the polar regions could be as much as three times greater than the global estimate, which would cause the polar ice caps to melt at a rapid rate and result in appreciably higher coastal waters.
Other factors may reduce the effect of an increase in carbon dioxide and thus prevent a rise in temperature. One of these factors is the rise in the amount of dust in the atmosphere, as the result of a volcanic eruption, for example. This could lead to greater reflection of the sun's light by the atmosphere, which would tend to lower the temperature on Earth. Another factor helping to minimize the effect of increased amounts of carbon dioxide is the greater absorption of the gas by the oceans. Some scientists believe that water vapor plays a much more significant role than does carbon dioxide in the Earth's greenhouse effect and that fluctuations in it are therefore much more important.
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